The Shutdown Blame Game Is Over — and Trump Lost

Fewer voters see Trump as "tough" and "energetic" now than they did at the beginning of his term.

Illustration by Susan J. Demas

The numbers are in, and the American people know who’s responsible for the government shutdown: Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

According to a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 1–3, nearly 2 in 5 Americans blame Trump and the GOP for the shutdown. History tells us that whoever gets blamed early stays blamed — and this year looks no different.

There’s also real energy on the Democratic side. Nearly half of Democrats say the shutdown is worth it, suggesting that voters believe Democratic leaders are taking a principled stand — not playing political games.

Trump’s Losing the Middle

The same CBS poll found broad opposition to Trump’s recent deployment of the military into U.S. cities:

• 61% of Americans are against it

• 70% of independents oppose it

And on the economy, it’s even worse for Trump:

• 66% disapprove of his economic performance

• More than half say Trump’s policies have made them financially worse off

• 75% say his administration is failing to address inflation

The Trump Myth Is Breaking

For years, Trump built his brand on “toughness.” But that image is cracking. Fewer Americans now see him as effective, focused, or even tough — the one trait he’s clung to through scandal and failure.

With his public appearances increasingly erratic — and his health visibly in decline — the curtain is starting to fall. Americans are seeing the real Trump, and they’re not impressed.

Redistricting, Virginia, and the Road Ahead

Meanwhile, in California, voters are signaling support for reform. 54% back Proposition 50, a mid-decade redistricting initiative designed to blunt the effects of GOP gerrymandering in Texas. That’s a big win for Governor Gavin Newsom — and a potential boost to House Democrats nationwide.

In Virginia, Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger maintains a commanding lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for governor. Thursday’s debate and the fallout from Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones violent text controversy could shake things up, but right now Spanberger looks solid.

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Bottom line: The GOP walked into a shutdown believing they could spin the blame. But the public isn’t buying it. Trump’s aura is fading, and Democrats are holding the line.

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For more on the latest polling — and what it means — don’t miss

Rick Wilson

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