Don’t Overread the New York Mayoral Primary

You can set your watch by it: Every time a high-profile Democratic primary happens in a big city, pundits rush to declare it a harbinger of the party’s future. The recent mayoral primary in New York City is no exception. But here’s the truth: if you’re trying to understand where the Democratic Party is headed — let alone what kind of message or candidate can win nationally — this race tells you next to nothing.

Start with the basics. A mayoral primary in New York, or in Chicago, Austin, Atlanta, or New Orleans for that matter, is a local contest shaped by local dynamics: personalities, coalitions, city-specific issues, turnout quirks. These races happen in deep-blue cities, often decided by a narrow sliver of engaged, ideologically committed voters. That’s not the electorate Democrats need to win over in the 3rd Congressional District of Iowa. Or a statewide race in Georgia. Or the presidency.

It’s a primary. In 2018, MAGA-aligned Republicans won plenty of GOP primaries, only to go down in flames in the general election. Primary victories often reward ideological purity, not broad-based appeal. They tell you more about activist energy than electoral viability.

If you’re looking for early signs of the Democratic Party’s direction heading into 2026 or 2028, don’t squint at the results in New York. Look at former Representative Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. Look at Representative Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey. Both have shown how to win tough races in purple territory without sacrificing principle — and now they’re both running for governor in their respective states. Their continued strength in competitive districts offers a more realistic window into the kind of messaging and coalition-building Democrats will need moving forward.

That’s not to take anything away from the candidate who ran a remarkable campaign in New York. Zohran Mamdani galvanized progressives, built a passionate base, and reminded us that the left has a vibrant voice in the party. And yes, you can bet that in the 2028 presidential primary, someone with a similar message — whether it’s Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or another progressive standard-bearer —will be in the race. But so will others with very different messages. And the battle for the future of the party will be fought on a far bigger stage than a local Democratic primary.

We should celebrate good campaigns and strong candidates wherever they emerge. But we shouldn’t confuse a mayor’s race in one of the bluest cities in America for a crystal ball. National elections are won by building a big, durable coalition that can carry not just urban strongholds but also swing districts and purple states.

The reality is that House races in 18 to 20 districts will decide the fate, not just of a party, but of democracy itself in America.

The message that wins or loses that battle will depend not on who can win a primary, but on who can build a wide enough coalition to win the general election in those districts.

So take a breath. Congratulate the winners. Learn what you can from the margins and tactics. I ran Howard Dean’s presidential campaign in 2004. We lost the primaries, but the Obama campaign learned from our tactics and won with a better message and messenger four years later.

Every Democrat running in 2026 should look at the tactics of the Mamdani campaign and learn from them. But the future of democracy and the party will rest on their authentic ability to grow a coalition of Democrats, independents and Republicans — yes Republicans — to win the House and stop Trump’s attack on democracy. That may also require each of us to support independent candidates or former Republicans we’ve disagreed with in the past who have joined our party and are helping to expand our coalition.

Failure is not an option — and the New York primary tells us next to nothing about what it will take to succeed.

---