Anchors, Weighted Chains, and Incontinence
Don't despair. Trump is sinking fast, creating loads of opportunities for Democrats in the 2026 midterms.
“You got me tied down with battleship chains Fifty foot long with a two-ton anchor Tied down with battleship chains Fifty foot long with a two-ton anchor”
– Warren Zevon, “Battleship Chains,” 1990 cover
Pants are being shat. No, I’m not making a crass joke about Donald Trump’s fecal incontinence. But I am talking about the immense and potentially crippling weight of Trump’s unpopularity threatening to swamp Republicans under a crushing, urgent-intestinal-cramp-inducing wave and pull their electoral prospects for 2026 into the watery depths of despair.
In Washington, D.C., state capitols, and especially in purple districts held by Republicans in the U.S. House or legislatures, GOPers with half a wit (believe it or not, a solid plurality still meets that threshold) are staring at a confluence of likely storm clouds they know pose perilous danger to their majorities and their individual reelections. The party of the incumbent in the White House historically suffers an average loss of 37 seats in the U.S. House and four seats in the U.S. Senate when the president’s approval rating is less than 50 percent.
Yes, we are still 18 months away from November 2026 and the elections scheduled to be held then. That’s both an eternity and a blink of an eye in electoral politics. And we’re now living in a post-constitutional hellscape dystopia where free and fair elections are less than assured. But Mad King Donald has spent his entire decade in elective politics staring up at the unattainable 50 percent mark. His default approval ratings — like his waistline — have been mired in the mid-40s at the best of times. More often, Trump’s favorability with American voters closely mirrors that of chlamydia, sexual predators (a twofer for Trump!), lima beans, and colonoscopy prep.
Which brings us back to the shitting of pants. Why are sentient Republicans again feeling the alarming rumbles in their bowels?
They have a mere two-seat majority in the House, control the Senate just 53-47, and are early underdogs in key gubernatorial races and battles for state legislative control. But these Republican incumbents and candidates face the sphincter-clenching conundrum of not provoking the ire of Dear Leader and the radical right-wing MAGA mob while simultaneously trying not to repel normal American general election voters. Not only are the prevailing historic winds against them, but the deliberate, self-inflicted shit-show of destruction and incompetence Donald Trump has waged against our economy, national security, and the rule of law during his 99-day sprint to begin his non-consecutive second term has immediately squelched any possible GOP momentum after having captured the governing trifecta in Washington.
Respected political prognosticators see the Democrats already in a position to make gains and control the U.S. House, under historically normal circumstances, and all things being equal. When factoring in Trump’s imploding popularity and the disastrous policy sprint to begin his second term, King Donald the Flatulent is tossing chains and anchors at floundering Republican candidates that could further doom their prospects of keeping their noses above the water line instead of offering any lifelines. In this kind of atmosphere, it isn’t just the GOP incumbents in perennial toss-up districts like Colorado-08, Michigan-07, Pennsylvania-08, or New York-17. Rather, it’s Republicans who hold those handful of districts won by Biden and Harris, as well as many districts Trump won by as much as 10 to 15 percent, who may well find themselves paying the price as proxies for their Dear Leader’s malfeasance, ignorance, and nascent authoritarianism.
John Thune’s GOP majority in the Senate is considered less vulnerable than that of Speaker Mike Johnson’s in the House, but anti-porn alerts on phones at the National Republican Senatorial Committee may chime with frequency as Trump screws their prospects, too. Vulnerable members like Thom Tillis and Susan Collins could see their prospects succumb relatively early, like those of Democrat John Tester in 2024. Though, like was seen with Tester, the Tillis and Collins races will still command massive outside funding as the incumbent party’s poohbahs try to keep money from leaving those states in favor of additional pick-up prospects for the Dems. The current (and prospective) environment favors the Democrats in must-hold seats like Ossoff in Georgia and the open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. Whereas the GOP is attempting to generate interest in their chances in the open seat in Minnesota, it is easier to anticipate closer-than-Minnesota races in R-held seats in Ohio (especially if Sherrod Brown runs against Husted), Texas (if ultra-MAGA AG Ken Paxton wins the primary), and the Kentucky open seat (if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has a change of heart.)
Popular key state Democratic governors are running for reelection in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, and longtime Democratic Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s decision to run as an independent scrambles the electoral math in the Great Lakes State. But the prospective GOP nominees are all racing to out-Trumpify each other, giving the Democrat who emerges from the primary — Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson or Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist are the leading candidates — an excellent chance of retaining this office, too.
So, unless or until Americans suddenly warm to imploding retirement savings, economic recessions, international stability, and a lawless government that ignores court orders and arrests judges, the Democrats, who lost most consequential races and battles for legislative control in 2024, may find the outcome of 2026 a one-eighty as they seek to thwart Donald Trump, restore the rule of law to governing, and protect democracy.** Lucid Republicans will continue to soil themselves and need frequent changes of underwear as they face the equally daunting and mutually exclusive prospects of alienating centrist and independent voters and displeasing Donald Trump and his merry mob of malignant MAGA minions.
**If normal elections are held and Trump doesn’t use a ruse like the Insurrection Act to declare martial law and disrupt or otherwise prevent the legally required elections from taking place.
Jeff Timmer is a political consultant, strategist, and Warren Zevon fan. He was Executive Director of the Michigan Republican Party and served as a Republican on the Michigan Board of State Canvassers. He is a Senior Advisor to the Lincoln Project.
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This is to the rump politician enablers and suck ups . Now that we have established that there’s no bottom for you let’s all agree once he’s gone - you’re gone. FOREVER . There is no washing this putrid stain from your reputations.
I’d like to think it’s starting. On the international stage Canada and Australia led the way, and I read that in Texas there were quite a few Republicans in school board elections that lost. Every win , no matter what it is , builds the momentum. Keep up the good fight!!