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Winners & Losers | The Scourge of Certainty

Our Loser of the Year is back for more. And SCOTUS moves out of villain territory ... for now.

Sam Osterhout's avatar
Sam Osterhout
Feb 23, 2026
∙ Paid

“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” — Voltaire

What happens when certainty becomes the measure of intelligence? We’re seeing it play out in our culture, our society, our government, our institutions. George W. Bush made a big play back in the day about just knowing what the right way was and what was the wrong way. He felt the truth in his gut.

That became a sort of touchstone for many on the right. When you know, you know. It was also a way to counter the snobby know-it-alls on the coasts and in blue states. The Democrats flip-flopped because they lacked the strength of their convictions, right? When new evidence appeared that contradicted their understanding of the world, they changed their views.

But to the right, that’s weak sauce, bro.

Certainty became everything. It’s not enough to know something is true based on the facts; you have to feel it.

Certainty became a feature of masculinity. Of strength. Of righteousness. John Kerry, the ultimate effete elite blue blood, was roasted for changing his mind once or twice.

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Maybe it’s always been this way. Certainly, humans have wallowed in their own fixed mindset for centuries. Certainty has led to wars and death and plagues and lots of bad things. Stubborness. Stupidity.

And so we begin this week’s Winners and Losers, with the scourge of certainty. Last week, two seemingly unrelated events took place: RFK, Jr. filmed himself dipping into a cold plunge in his jeans, and the Supreme Court knocked down Trump’s illegal tariff regime.

But … they are more related than you might think. Or else I’m nuts. I’ll let you judge for yourself.

RFK Jr., Loser

Mr. Blue Jeans produced one of the most bizarre video romps in recent memory last week, featuring him and his old pal, Kid Rock. They were exercising in some kind of dungeon/spa. In one scene set in a sauna, Kid Rock did push-ups on the cedar bench while Robert rode a stationary bike next to him.

They did other exercises together, too. It was weird. But the weirdest thing was that RFK wore jeans and no shirt throughout the whole thing. It was uncomfortable watching him dip below the surface of the cold plunge in his denim, if only because who wants to wear a soaking-wet pair of jeans?

While that was making the rounds on social media, and many of us were desperately trying to scrub out our eyeballs, Mother Jones dropped a story on RFK Jr.’s desire to end the war on non-traditional medical treatments.

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