Trump, Taiwan, and the New World Order

If deterrence fails over Taiwan, no one can say we didn’t see it coming.

Brian Daitzman is the Editor of The Intellectualist. Subscribe to his Substack.

If China moves to annex Taiwan, no one will honestly be able to say the warnings were hidden. Trump is making deterrence look negotiable, allies are beginning to doubt America’s defense commitments, and Beijing is openly signaling that it sees China rising as the United States declines.

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There are catastrophes people later say they never saw coming, even when the warnings were there. September 11 still lives that way in American memory: a clear morning, then rupture, followed by years of reconstruction in which scattered warnings slowly assembled into a pattern.

A Taiwan crisis would not be like that.

This time, the pattern is not buried in classified memos, missed signals, or hindsight. It is in the news almost every day. The threats are no longer abstract. They are publicly coalescing: Chinese pressure on Taiwan, American hesitation, conditional commitments, strained munitions, shaken alliances, Russia-China coordination, and a president treating deterrence as negotiation.

That is the gathering storm: not a surprise from a clear sky, but a visible front moving toward us while the people responsible for preparing the country argue over whether the clouds are real.

The warnings are not hidden. They are public, repeated, and still not being treated with the seriousness they deserve.

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From the American side, this is a strategist’s nightmare: a president whose foreign policy appears more conciliatory toward authoritarian rivals than democratic partners; Taiwan made negotiable; Ukraine support made conditional; NATO trust made brittle; Greenland turned into a coercive hemispheric crisis; U.S. munitions stretched after Iran; U.S. soft power weakened; and democratic allies left to wonder whether Washington still understands the difference between partners and adversaries.

Ukraine is the warning Taiwan can already see.

Since January 20, 2025, Trump has treated Zelenskyy less like the elected leader of an invaded democracy than like a subordinate to be pressured, judged, and made useful. The Oval Office confrontation made the signal visible: Trump and Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelenskyy for not being sufficiently grateful, and U.S. military and intelligence aid was then paused.

AP reported that the Trump administration later resumed both military aid and intelligence sharing, reversing a suspension intended to pressure Ukraine into peace talks with Russia. That sequence matters more than the reversal. It showed every ally watching that American support can be paused, personalized, negotiated, and restored only after damage is done.

Taipei can see all of this happening in public.

Ukraine could absorb delay because it was already fighting a land war with major European backing. Taiwan may not get that margin. In a Taiwan Strait crisis, hesitation in the opening hours could become the event itself. Ukraine showed the method. Taiwan may reveal the cost.

Greenland shows how far the damage has gone.