The GOP Is Unravelling
Republican resignations signal their fear of humiliation in the 2026 midterms.
Double-digit swings toward Democrats in congressional special elections point are now a consistent trend, — which points to a potential wipeout for GOP candidates in November 2026.
Why are so many Republican representatives resigning? Because they would rather face an uncertain political future than a humiliating defeat.
We often talk about the generic ballot for 2026, but it’s worth acknowledging that this is an imperfect predictor of how each party will perform in individual races. For example, YouGov’s latest release shows Democrats up 6 points (45–39%). But in many swing districts, I expect Democratic candidates to outperform the generic ballot.
As noted earlier, congressional special elections this year have swung left by an average of roughly 17 points, with the largest shift in Florida’s deep-red 1st District.
Consider this: at this point in Joe Biden’s presidency, he was roughly 8 points underwater according to YouGov. Donald Trump is now 19 points underwater per that same pollster. In 2022, I’d argue that local factors—crime, for instance—mattered more than Biden’s approval, and Democrats still lost the House.
In 2026, however, Trump is likely to be the central topic for most voters. That’s in part because the dominant issue is affordability and rising prices—problems that have intensified under Trump’s tariff regime. In short, the GOP is getting the worst of both worlds: a deeply unpopular president and a national discourse centered on a crisis that voters overwhelmingly blame on Republicans.
The Economist/YouGov poll released Monday found that 44% of respondents say prices are much higher than a year ago, including 21% of Trump voters. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval on affordability sits at a dire -27 points.
The latest round of Republican infighting also shows that the party’s struggle over its own future is far from resolved. That said, I think the defections by Marjorie Taylor Greene and others are being overstated as indicators of some new post-Trump MAGAism. We will certainly see some Republicans in 2026 offer subtle grumbling about Trump—especially on tariffs and Epstein—but I doubt it will go further than that. Instead, many Republicans are likely to direct their fury at Mike Johnson.
Gallup’s most recent release showed a steep drop in Republican approval of Congress. In the wake of the shutdown, the base appears to be turning sharply against Johnson.
Still, despite finding Trump at a dismal 36% approval—his lowest of this term—Gallup also found that he retains 84% approval among Republicans. That may seem high, but for Trump it represents a historic low.
The congressional GOP is unraveling, but the pain for Mike Johnson has only just begun. That may not immediately lead Republicans to break from Trump, but in the long run, Trump cannot survive losing the House once human shield, Mike Johnson, is ousted from the speakership.
Andrew Wilson is a research analyst at the Lincoln Democracy Institute.
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Republicans are re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Voters can make a strong statement next year…and we’d better carry through.
I suspect Elise Stefanik, the milk of human kindness, is leaving Congress because she doesn’t want to be in the minority. I’m relatively sure she’d win here in northern Alabama.
My question is whether she’s delusional enough to think she has a chance of being governor.
The good news is there’s a lot in interest on both sides in running to replace her. Looking forward to the Republican contestants competing in the category of whose love for Donald Trump is the strongest. Bonus points for claiming your primary opponent rigged the election.