The End of the Trump Era
The MAGA constituency — and older Americans in general — is finally losing its grasp on power.
Andrew Wilson is a polling analyst for The Lincoln Project. Subscribe to his Substack.
Donald Trump is functionally finished as a political force in American life. These past twelve years were the Trump years, but the Iran war signaled the dawn of a new era. The polling makes this clear: we have entered new territory. At no point in recent memory have Americans wholesale rejected Trump — until now.
Polling shows nationwide disgust at the corruption and chaos emanating from the Oval Office. To be sure, there are still many who support him. The Boomer core of MAGA is holding on for dear life, desperate to avoid any conversation about gas prices. Long-term, the diehards were never enough to sustain a lasting movement, but today they are its unshakeable core. Like Trump himself, the MAGA constituency — and older Americans in general — is finally losing its grasp on power.
There is no coming back from here. Americans blame Trump for the pain they feel at the pump and at the grocery store. Per a recent AP-NORC poll, just 33% approve of his overall job performance. On Iran, Trump would have reversed course by now if he had any real control of the situation. But voters are no longer giving him the benefit of the doubt. As the Epstein saga has exploded, the President’s distractions and excuses have ceased to have their intended effect.
Throughout the spring, polls showed voters believe Trump is focused on the wrong issues. The Arch de Epstein is the perfect example — and perfectly illustrative of the national mood. Trump is daily shouting victory while Americans are feeling defeated. Voters are increasingly saying he does not have the mental capacity to serve as president. The boasting rings hollow and the Truths are terrifying.
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