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The Broken Bargain: Why the Trump Coalition Is Fracturing in 2026

From soaring tariffs to ICE's violence, the economic and moral costs of Trump's second term are clear. And that's alienating the very independent voters who delivered him the White House.

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Andrew Wilson
Feb 04, 2026
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Andrew Wilson is a polling analyst for The Lincoln Project.

Illustration by Riley Levine

Imagine for a moment that it’s 2024 and you’ve just cast your ballot for Donald Trump. You and your family have struggled ever since runaway inflation sent the price of everyday goods through the roof. He promised to bring prices down. You don’t love Trump, and some o…

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