The Broken Bargain: Why the Trump Coalition Is Fracturing in 2026

From soaring tariffs to ICE's violence, the economic and moral costs of Trump's second term are clear. And that's alienating the very independent voters who delivered him the White House.

Feb 04, 2026

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Andrew Wilson is a polling analyst for The Lincoln Project.

Imagine for a moment that it’s 2024 and you’ve just cast your ballot for Donald Trump. You and your family have struggled ever since runaway inflation sent the price of everyday goods through the roof. He promised to bring prices down. You don’t love Trump, and some o…

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A guest post by

Andrew Wilson

Wilson is the Political Director at the Lincoln Project, where he he leads political strategy and survey research He works to translate data into messaging and strategy that shapes the organization's broader political operations.