Polling from the past week offers a mixed picture of how Americans view the ongoing shutdown and the administration behind it. On the surface, the numbers might look stable — but underneath, there’s serious erosion.
The ‘Bump’ That Isn’t
You may have seen Reuters headlines this morning claiming Trump’s approval ticked up two points since the start of the month, or CNN’s Harry Enten arguing the shutdown hasn’t hurt him much. The problem: those shifts are within the margin of error — statistical noise, not a trend.
Republicans Take the Blame
In reality, the shutdown is hurting Trump — and more importantly, his party.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found:
50% of U.S. adults blame Republicans in Congress for the shutdown
14% of Republicans blame their own party
Only 9% of Democrats blame theirs
That kind of intra-party defection is dangerous with major gubernatorial races and the midterms looming.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows Democrats holding a 5-point advantage overall, with independents nearly twice as likely to back a Democrat over a Republican. And according to Morning Consult, Trump’s approval is underwater in every swing state — down 10 points in Virginia and 12 in New Jersey.
That’s bad news for GOP gubernatorial nominees — Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia and Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey — both fighting uphill in their races next month.
Healthcare: The Democrats’ Trump Card
If the shutdown is a fight about priorities, Democrats picked the right one.
A new AP/NORC poll found Trump’s approval at just 37%, his lowest mark of the term. Even more telling, 81% of Americans say healthcare is “extremely” or “very” important — and 72% (including over half of Republicans) support extending health-insurance subsidies.
Democrats have made those subsidies the heart of their shutdown stance. The numbers show the public is with them.
A Subtle but Significant Shift
We may also be seeing the early notes of a political realignment.
Recent Gallup data show Americans are now 7% more likely to identify as Democrats.
Even more striking: 47% say Democrats are the party best suited to keep the country prosperous — a question Republicans have led since 2012, except for a brief Democratic surge during COVID.
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Reading this and seeing the explanations makes the "numbers" and the who and what understandable. Even better, we can go back and read it again if we missed something. Good job. Thanks, Andrew.
Thanks for the glmmer of good news, Andrew. Maybe some outside the maga cultway are seeing the light of trump's darkness. What I think message challenged dems should also include in their health insurance messaging is that Medicare Advantage plans are increasing maximum out of pocket limits, increasing copays and cutting back on other offered services within dental and vision. Also, from what I read, employer predisposed health insurance is rising an average of 15% in 2026. republicans have encouraged a wide ranging bear down of anyone who needs health insurance and what I mentioned doesn't include the onerous new restrictions on Medicaid recipients, which could leads to millions of children and adults being with health insurance. Not to mention throwing grandma to the curb from nursing home care. Everything trump touches dies, including American's access to and affordability of hrealth insurance.