Kristoffer Ealy is a political scientist, political analyst, and professor in Southern California. He teaches American Government and political behavior, with a focus on political psychology, voting behavior, and political socialization. Subscribe to his Substack, The Thinking Class with Professor Ealy.
I’ve already written about some of Democrats’ historic wins on November 3.
Now, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the disappointments, starting with Florida, where Democrats managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of two perfectly winnable races. Ashley Moody held off Angie Nixon 51 percent to 48 percent, and Byron Donalds beat David Jolly 50 percent to 48.7 percent. In Alabama, an idiot like Tommy Tuberville beat Doug Jones again. Those losses hurt, especially Florida, because the national Democratic Party treated the state like an abandoned shopping mall.
Heading into Election Day, Kalshi and Polymarket had Moody at roughly 91 percent, practically measuring the drapes for her next six years in Washington. Nixon came within three points of beating her. Donalds won by less than two points in a state where Republicans enjoy a 1.5 million voter registration advantage. That’s a near-death experience with a balloon drop.
And where the hell was the national Democratic Party? In October, CNN reported that national Democratic organizations had largely stayed on the sidelines in Florida’s statewide races. Donalds and his allies had raised more than $134 million, compared with approximately $16.6 million for Jolly. Democrats spent months telling us Florida was unwinnable, and then their candidates came within striking distance without anything resembling adequate national support. Imagine what might have happened if somebody in Washington had bothered to open a checkbook.
And let’s give Bakari Sellers his flowers, preferably the kind you send to somebody after they’ve said something so stupid you need to check whether they’re conscious. Back in August, he went on CNN and declared, “We won’t be wasting money in Florida now.” He explained that Democrats should put their resources into states they could actually win. Well, Bakari, Nixon came within three points, and Jolly came even closer. That’s quite a definition of unwinnable.
I can only imagine Chuck Schumer hearing that brilliant political analysis and thinking, “Excellent! Let’s give Florida approximately the same level of attention we give the office refrigerator.” I don’t know whether Schumer took Sellers’s advice, but the national party certainly behaved like it. Nixon was fighting for a Senate seat, and Democratic leadership treated Florida like a cousin asking to borrow money for the fourth time this month.
And here’s what makes me furious: these weren’t ceremonial campaigns. They were competitive! Nixon had Moody sweating so badly that the senator acknowledged the narrow margin in her victory speech. Jolly nearly beat Trump’s handpicked candidate for governor. Democrats didn’t need to perform a miracle in Florida. They needed to invest in their own goddamn candidates.
